On reflection, I realized that I have not only tweeted extensively on Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, but also written several long-form articles in the leadup to the Russian invasion, and the immediate aftermath. Due to writing under a pseudonym at AMAC, and the addictive nature of twitter, I have made no effort to place my observations in long-form either here or on my own old website. The result is articles which are published two to three days after being written, or tweets rapidly lost to history on the back of events. I thought it might make sense to try and get out my thoughts here.
Seems like the likely result is a split among the Dnieper, no peace treaty (so like the Korean War) and a hyper-pissed-off ultra-militarized West Ukraine (backed by the West) as part of the Western Alliance. The Russian forces now congregating around Kyiv seem really easy to cut off. Only one bridge back to Belarus, and I would think it would be easy to keep armies from crossing a river as wide as the Dnieper. I'm actually surprised that UA hasn't blown up more bridges yet.
Mass prisoners exchange.
The interesting questions are:
1. Would Putin allow anyone who wants to to cross over to West Ukraine?
2. How long can he keep a hold of East Ukraine? Without a peace settlement, the sanctions aren't coming off, so Russia's economy will remain a basketcase (yes, there's China, but Russia will essentially become late-stage Soviet Union again) and he'll have to subsidize East Ukraine heavily (and likely have to put down insurgencies too). Occupations aren't cheap.
Seems like the likely result is a split among the Dnieper, no peace treaty (so like the Korean War) and a hyper-pissed-off ultra-militarized West Ukraine (backed by the West) as part of the Western Alliance. The Russian forces now congregating around Kyiv seem really easy to cut off. Only one bridge back to Belarus, and I would think it would be easy to keep armies from crossing a river as wide as the Dnieper. I'm actually surprised that UA hasn't blown up more bridges yet.
Mass prisoners exchange.
The interesting questions are:
1. Would Putin allow anyone who wants to to cross over to West Ukraine?
2. How long can he keep a hold of East Ukraine? Without a peace settlement, the sanctions aren't coming off, so Russia's economy will remain a basketcase (yes, there's China, but Russia will essentially become late-stage Soviet Union again) and he'll have to subsidize East Ukraine heavily (and likely have to put down insurgencies too). Occupations aren't cheap.